Almost 40 years ago, the UN Security Council confirmed the right of the people of Western Sahara to self-determination

Like many regional conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, the current dispute over Western Sahara involving Morocco and Algeria traces its roots back to the colonial era. This sparsely populated desert territory is rich in phosphate reserves and boasts a long coastline along the Atlantic Ocean, teeming with valuable fish resources.

In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on the Western Sahara issue during a press conference in Moscow. He emphasized that the status of the territory should be resolved through a mutual agreement between the people of Western Sahara and Morocco. Lavrov made the statement in the context of Russia's increasing ties with the Kingdom of Morocco, which claims sovereignty over the disputed region.

"Morocco is a friendly country. We have good plans. We are assisting Moroccans in addressing issues within the competence of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, particularly the issue of Western Sahara," Lavrov said.

Lavrov pointed out that the matter has stalled, despite being on the UN Security Council's agenda for decades - almost 40 years ago, the Security Council confirmed the right of the people of Western Sahara to self-determination. Many international media outlets interpreted Lavrov's comments as an attempt to turn the Western Sahara conflict into yet another point of contention with the US before Donald Trump's inauguration for a second term. Lavrov himself mentioned Washington's official stance.

"During Donald Trump's first term in office, his administration unilaterally declared Western Sahara part of Morocco. These issues can be resolved only through bilateral efforts. Any other approach will just sow the seeds of tempest," he said.

However, Lavrov merely noted that serious issues like the fate of an entire nation should be governed by relevant UN resolutions, not solely by any one country's geopolitical interests. He added that given the critical importance of the Western Sahara issue to Morocco, Russia would do everything possible to facilitate a resolution, but ultimately, both parties involved in the conflict must come to a mutual agreement.

The history of the Western Sahara dispute

From 1958 to 1976, the region was divided into two Spanish provinces in Africa: Rio de Oro ('Oued Edhahab' in Arabic) and Saguia el-Hamra. By the mid-1970s, as Spain began the process of decolonization, it promised to hold a referendum on the independence of Western Sahara. However, both Morocco and Mauritania laid claim to the territory, arguing that it had been artificially snatched away from them by European colonial powers.

Algeria opposed this move, especially since Morocco also had designs on Algerian provinces such as Tindouf and Bechar. Insisting that the UN oversee the decolonization process, the Algerian government led by then-President Houari Boumediene committed itself to supporting the Polisario Front - a movement formed in 1973 by Saharan students advocating for the full independence of Western Sahara.

In the same year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determined that Western Sahara lacked sufficient historical ties to Morocco and Mauritania to justify one of these countries claiming sovereignty over it. Consequently, it was recognized that the inhabitants of this disputed territory have the right to self-determination.

In response, on November 6, 1975, Morocco orchestrated the so-called Green March into Western Sahara, involving around 350,000 unarmed Moroccans. The goal was to pressure Spain into transferring the contested territory to Morocco. Just days earlier, on October 31, the Moroccan armed forces had invaded Western Sahara from the north, while Mauritania annexed the southern part of the region.

On November 14, 1975, Spain signed a tripartite agreement with Rabat and Nouakchott, initiating the transfer of the contested land. Then, fighting for the region's independence, the Algeria-backed Polisario Front started an armed conflict and succeeded in driving Mauritanian troops out of the area. Nevertheless, Morocco persisted in its military efforts, and by the late 1970s, it had extended its control over all of Western Sahara, constructing an extensive sand berm known as the Moroccan Western Sahara Wall, in order to counter guerrilla activities.

On February 27, 1976, the Polisario Front declared the region an independent state, naming it the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). As for Rabat, it offered the region autonomy; however, to this day, Morocco regards it as an integral part of the kingdom.

Military hostilities between Morocco and the Polisario Front only ceased in 1991, facilitated by the UN. Following a proposal from the UN secretary-general, the Security Council adopted Resolution 690, establishing the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). Both Rabat and the Polisario Front agreed to this.

The UN's peace plan called for a transitional period during which a special representative would oversee all matters related to the upcoming referendum. However, due to ongoing disputes between the parties regarding the electoral process, the referendum never took place. Nonetheless, the mission's mandate is annually renewed by the UN Security Council.

In 2020, the Polisario Front resumed its fight for independence. On November 14, Brahim Ghali, President of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and Polisario Secretary-General, announced the end of the ceasefire with Morocco, accusing the latter of violating the truce. Since then, the SADR army has periodically reported strikes against Moroccan military positions along the defensive wall constructed by Morocco.

The yardstick of friendship

As of September 2022, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic had been recognized by 46 out of the 193 UN member states. However, Morocco's assertive foreign policy, which considers partners based on their stance regarding the Western Sahara issue, has motivated an increasing number of countries to support Rabat.

On August 20, 2022, during his speech on the occasion of the King and People's Revolution Day, Moroccan monarch Mohammed VI declared that for him, a country's position on Western Sahara "is clearly and simply the yardstick that measures the sincerity of ties and the effectiveness of partnerships." He urged partner nations to clarify their stance on the Sahara issue to eliminate any ambiguity.

As a result, in 2024 alone, at least seven countries, including France and Spain, expressed their support for Rabat. Additionally, Chad announced the opening of a consulate in Dakhla, the administrative capital of Oued Edhahab, which is now home to over 30 diplomatic missions, primarily from African nations.

In December 2020, the United States became the first Western nation to recognize Rabat's sovereignty over Western Sahara. The Trump administration took this step as a reward for Morocco's agreement to normalize relations with Israel.

After Trump's first presidential term ended, many speculated that the new US president, Joe Biden, would reverse this decision. However, by late July 2021, the acting assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, Joey Hood, affirmed at a joint press conference with Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita that the US position on the disputed region of Western Sahara remained unchanged.

Access to the Atlantic

Morocco is rapidly developing projects in Western Sahara and integrating them into its regional alliances and agreements in an effort to indirectly motivate African nations to cooperate with Moroccan institutions in Western Sahara. In recent years, Rabat has been expanding its economic partnership with the Sahel-Saharan region, viewing it as a gateway to African markets. This strategy has already yielded significant results: over the past decade, Moroccan exports to fellow African nations surged from $300 million to more than $3 billion, while national investments exceeded $2.5 billion, with most of them concentrated in the Sahel and Sahara region.

Morocco aims to establish itself as a regional leader in telecommunications, cement production, banking, and services. Additionally, it is actively expanding its activities in the fields of renewable energy, logistics, mineral exploration, and natural gas. On the Atlantic coast of Western Sahara, the Dakhla Port is being modernized and is expected to be operational by 2029.

Rabat's foreign policy is guided by two primary goals: securing its claim to Western Sahara, and implementing the so-called 'Atlantic Initiative'. In fact, the latter is designed to advance the former. Morocco seeks to transform its western coastline into a strategic platform for regional cooperation, providing landlocked African nations with direct access to the Atlantic Ocean through Western Sahara.

Launched by Mohammed VI in November 2023, the initiative aims to facilitate the access of the Sahel countries to the Atlantic Ocean. The project is designed to boost the region's economy and enhance regional security by leveraging Moroccan infrastructure, promoting cutting-edge agricultural and solar energy projects, and improving education, professional training, and healthcare services.

The initiative targets landlocked nations like Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso; their foreign ministers have already expressed support for the project. On July 7, 2024, Morocco officially announced the launch of the operational phase of the initiative.

Morocco's Atlantic Initiative is backed by the United States, since it promotes American interests in the Sahel region. Moreover, this initiative may undermine Algeria's economic and strategic interests in the region, which fits the broader context of the long-standing Algerian-Moroccan rivalry.

Algeria's stance 

Not all countries are eager to back the Atlantic Initiative, as doing so would mean recognizing Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara. The project is further undermined by the absence of influential regional players like Senegal (despite its strong ties with Morocco) and Mauritania, which has chosen to distance itself from the initiative in an effort to maintain neutrality in the long-standing geopolitical rivalry between Rabat and Algiers. Nouakchott also declined to join the Union of Maghreb Countries, established on Algeria's initiative in 2023-2024, since it excludes Morocco.

Interestingly, Rabat extended an invitation to Algeria to participate in the Atlantic Initiative, fully aware that Algeria would decline the offer. This message was subtly conveyed in King Mohammed VI's address to the Moroccan people on November 6, 2024, on national Green March Day. "There are those who exploit the Sahara issue to obtain access to the Atlantic Ocean. To them we say: We do not reject that. As everyone knows, Morocco has proposed an international initiative to facilitate the access of the Sahel countries to the Atlantic Ocean, within the framework of partnership and cooperation, and to achieve joint progress for all the people of the region," he said.

Clearly, Algeria is staunchly opposed to Morocco's project and is actively working against it. In February 2024, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced the establishment of free trade zones with Maghreb countries (Tunisia, Libya, and Mauritania) and Sahel nations (Mali and Niger). He emphasized that Algeria has already initiated major projects of continental significance, including the Trans-Saharan Highway connecting six African countries; a road linking Tindouf in Algeria (where the Polisario Front is based) to Zouerat in Mauritania; and the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) designed to connect Nigeria and Algeria to Europe.

'The French idea'

In a recent speech, President Tebboune described Morocco's claim of sovereignty over Western Sahara as yet another ploy by France. He asserted that the autonomy plan was a "French idea," conceived not in Rabat or Marrakech but rather in Paris. It's important to note that during the summer of 2024, Algeria's relationship with its former colonial power entered another crisis, triggered by French President Emmanuel Macron's letter to King Mohammed VI, which acknowledged the 'Moroccanness' of Western Sahara on Morocco's national holiday, celebrated on July 30.

"Our support for the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco in 2007 is clear and constant. For France, it now constitutes the only basis for achieving a just, lasting and negotiated political solution in line with the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council," Macron stated.

The autonomy plan referenced by Macron was submitted by Rabat to the UN Security Council in April 2007. It was modeled on Spain's administrative divisions, particularly autonomous regions like the Canary Islands, the Basque Country, Andalusia, and Catalonia. The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1754 on April 30, 2007, calling for negotiations between both parties. However, four rounds of talks held in 2007 and 2008 yielded little progress. Thus, Resolution 690 from 1991 remains fundamental, while Paris, instead of acting as a mediator between the two neighboring countries, has only exacerbated the long-standing conflict.

Regardless of the initiatives of individual European countries, the EU judiciary adheres strictly to the legal foundations outlined in the UN resolutions. For instance, in October 2024, the European Court ruled that the European Commission violated the right of the Western Sahara people to self-determination by concluding trade agreements with Morocco in the fields of fishing and agriculture, in areas including the Atlantic coastline of Sahara. This allowed Rabat to  conclude similar agreements with Russia, and just days later, negotiations began with Moscow to expand fishing cooperation.

Lavrov's statement regarding Russia's intention to support Rabat in solving these issues does not imply that Russia recognizes Morocco's sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, though many Moroccan experts interpreted it as a move towards closer ties between the two nations. Russia continues to maintain friendly relations with both Morocco and Algeria, aiming to preserve neutrality while fostering partnerships with these North African states. Regarding the Western Sahara issue, the Russian foreign minister has made it clear that the resolution of the issue should be based on the decisions of the UN Security Council, and should aim to satisfy both sides of the conflict.