Hong Kong, March 11 (ANI): On 5 March, at this year's 14th National People's Congress, China announced its defense budget for 2025. The latest figure rises 7.2% year on year. Interestingly, Beijing maintained the growth rate of its military expenditure at precisely the same percentage as last year, and the year before, as Chairman Xi Jinping prioritizes development of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

According to figures released on the opening day of the Third Annual Session, a formal gathering of China's legislature, the 2025 defense budget will rise to CNY1.784665 trillion, which equates to USD249 billion. China firmly remains theworld's second-largest spender on its military, trailing only the USA.

John Culver, a former US national intelligence officer and retired CIA analyst, astutely noted: 'Beijing sets the defense budget target increase over each five-year period. It adjusts for inflation or emergency contingencies if necessary. From 2001 until the global financial crisis, they programed a doubling of the budget every five years, and hit it almost to the decimal point. Since 2010, they've programmed a doubling every ten years. The announced annual budget figure is top down, not bottom up. Example: 2014 = RMB808 billion; 2024 = RMB1,670 billion.'

The 2,977 members of the National People's Congress automatically rubber-stamped this budget, and other national spending plans of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Held annually, the Two Sessions is the nearest thing to a carnival in China's serious and stultifying political calendar. It opened on 5 March and was due to close on the 11th.

This year's budget was a reminder that the double-digit percentage increases of a decade ago are long gone. In fact, this is the tenth year in a row where defense expenditure growth has been in single digits. Simultaneously, China's economy is trying to keep its chin above water; gross domestic product (GDP) growth is predicted to be 5% in the year ahead, the same as what it expected over the past two years. The 7.2% rise means defense spending as a percentage of GDP remains below 1.5%.

Lou Qinjian, spokesperson for the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress, boasted that China has held the GDP percentage below 1.5% for many years, a rate lower than the world average. However, a pertinent question is to ask what China's real defense spending actually is? Chinese proclamations must be closely scrutinized, because figures from the CCP should always be taken with a grain of salt. China's defense budget misses out swathes of funding allocated for related things such as its military-run space program, defense mobilization funds, provincial military base operating costs, military pensions and benefits, and civilian/dual-use research and development. Nor does the defense budget include major paramilitary organizations like the People's Armed Police and China Coast Guard, which are enormous forces that supplement the PLA.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China's real 2023 defense budget was 37% higher than announced, while the UK-based International Institute of Strategic Studies calculated it to be 42% higher than what Beijing claimed. However, it is unclear just how large the discrepancy is between China's reported and actual defense spending. In 2023, the Pentagon estimated that Beijing's real spending may be 30-40% higher than officially stated.

Deflecting any culpability for contributing to growing global defense spending, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense (MND), pointed the finger at US defense spending as being 'concerning' to the international community. Wu declared, 'I believe the United States should be the first to cut its nuclear arsenal and military expenditure, and put into practice 'America First' in this regard.'

A Xinhua news report added, repeating old canards trotted out at this time every year, 'China upholds a national defense policy that's defensive in nature, with its military spending mainly focusing on protecting its sovereignty, security and development interests. China's development strengthens the world's forces for peace, and the country will never seek hegemony or engage in expansionism, no matter what stage of development it reaches.'

The CCP mouthpiece added, 'As China continues to play an increasingly important role on the global stage, its military has taken on greater responsibility in providing the international community with more public security goods. Over the years, Chinese military personnel have frequently joined in international humanitarian aid and disaster relief efforts, contributing significantly to global stability.' Xinhua quoted a figure of 50,000+ peacekeepers being dispatched to more than 20 countries over the past 30 years. As such, it is the largest contributor among the five UN Security Council permanent members.

However, putting the sum of USD249 billion in perspective, it is greater than the defense budgets of the next 22 Indo-Pacific countries combined, and that includes the likes of serious spenders such as India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan. What is China spending the money on? The budget is very opaque, with no breakdowns provided. However, Wu of the MND said 'increased expenditure will be mainly used to develop new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, and to enhance systems and capacity for reconnaissance and early warning, joint strikes, battlefield support and integrated logistics support'. Additionally, funds would be invested to improve military training under realistic conditions and to deepen national defense and military reform.

Wu added, 'The Chinese military faces tough challenges in safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.' He alleged that China faces one of the most complex peripheral security environments in the world, and that the PLA 'will spare no effort to reach the goals set' for the force's centenary in 2027. He said it was a strategic imperative that the PLA speed up building a world-class armed force. 'We must dedicate our efforts to ensuring that we achieve our goals with strong performance on schedule.'

Nuclear weapons make up a considerable chunk of spending, plus satellite images have emerged of what is likely to be the PLA Navy's fourth aircraft carrier under construction in Dalian. There are some indications that this will be China's firstnuclear-powered carrier.

Delivering his government work report, Premier Li Qiang promised the party faithful that the PLA would 'step up military training and combat readiness so as to firmly safeguard China's sovereignty, security and development interests'.

In his address to the congress, Xi as well stressed the need to intensify joint civil-military endeavors, and implement an effective oversight system to investigate corruption. State media also noted, 'Calling for the accelerated development of new-quality combat capabilities, Xi urged efforts to improve a swift response and rapid transformation mechanism for advanced technologies.'

This year marks the end of China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), which includes military development. According to state media, Xi 'called for efforts to strengthen confidence, face challenges head-on, and implement the requirements for high-quality development to achieve the established goals and tasks on schedule'. He urged the pursuit of 'a high-quality, highly efficient, cost-effective and sustainable path of military development to ensure that its outcomes withstand the test of time and real combat'.

Earlier, Premier Li said the CCP preferred a peaceful solution to the Taiwan 'issue', but Beijing 'resolutely opposes' Taiwan pushing for any formal independence and the backing of any foreign supporters. This is rather a moot point because nobody is really calling for such a thing, but it fits the CCP's narrative to up the ante. Li added, 'We will firmly advance the cause of China's reunification and work with our fellow Chinese in Taiwan to realize the glorious cause of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.'

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te insists that only Taiwanese people can decide their future; Beijing cannot impose its own agenda. Lai has offered to hold talks with China, but Beijing rebuffs him as a 'separatist'. Overall, however, China's tone onTaiwan did not alter much in this year's government work report.

Taiwan, rightfully alarmed at the USA's abandonment of Ukraine so that it now swings in the wind before Russia's onslaught, can no longer be assured of American assistance. Taipei is therefore planning to boost defense spending in the face of the 'rapidly changing international situation and the escalating threats from adversaries,' said Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Li-Hsiung Koo.

Somewhat ironically, Li and President Donald Trump each delivered their State of the Union or work reports on the same day. In his speech, Trump invoked China six times in connection to perceived unfairness or tariffs, but he never mentioned it as a strategic threat.

On the other hand, Ryan Hass, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institute, assessed China's work report thus: 'Premier Li Qiang's main message was to implore China to have confidence in its course. He described steady progress in China's economic growth and improvements to wellbeing. The bumper sticker of his speech was that the CCP would pursue progress while ensuring stability. Premier Li vowed measures to support PRC economic growth in the coming year, such as more proactive fiscal policy, more accommodative monetary policy, greater support for consumption, boosting innovation through investment in education and science research, etc.'

Significantly, Li made no direct references to the USA, although he did obliquely refer to 'hegemonism and power politics'. Nor did American tariffs garner a headline in the premier's speech. There seems to be calm acceptance in Beijing that a trade war is coming. Hass said, 'Beijing appears focused on preparing itself for the bumpy period ahead. Both sides appear to be practicing patience and working to strengthen their own hands as they lay the groundwork for Trump and Xi to meet in the coming months, where the two leaders will set the direction, priorities and scale of ambition for the relationship going forward.'

Elsewhere, though, there was fighting talk. China's Foreign Ministry and its Embassy in the USA warned, 'If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight until the end.' This combative talk came after the USA smacked 20% tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing also announced tit-for-tat tariffs of 10-15% on certain American imports beginning 10 March. China's Foreign Ministry tweeted, 'Intimidation does not scare us. Bullying does not work on us. Pressuring, coercion or threats are not the right way of dealing with China.'

Indeed, Grant Newsham, Senior Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, said of Beijing's goals: '[China] sees this very much as a 'zero-sum game', as a word some might use. And whatever China can get, it will take. And it will not make concessions because it does very much view this as a fight to the finish. And Xi has said this. If you actually read the translations of his speeches, both spoken and written, he's clearly saying that the Chinese system cannot survive if the American system survives. One of them has got to go. And he has referred to the United States, the US system, particularly these ideas of freedom and human rights, and the things we hold dear - he refers to these as 'the enemy', as something that must be destroyed.'

Alarm is growing about the growing heft of the PLA. China recently conducted live-fire gunnery drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. Three Chinese warships then almost completed a circumnavigation of Australia before heading into the Indian Ocean. China throws its weight around the South China Sea, bullying or angering the Philippines and Vietnam. The PLA's coercion of Taiwan continues unabated too. China's actions contradict its words at the Third Annual Session, where it claimed its 'development strengthens the world's forces for peace, and the country will never seek hegemony or engage in expansionism'. (ANI)