The Islamic State in Somalia is an affiliate of the transnational jihadist group Islamic State, known in short as ISIS. Based in the semi-autonomous northern Somalia territory of Puntland, the terrorist group was the target of the first foreign combat operation of the Trump administration in February 2025. Previously, the group has been linked to planned terror attacks on the Vatican and on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm. Stig Jarle Hansen, a researcher and author of several books on jihadism in Africa, examines its origins, rise and recent battlefield defeats in the mountains of Puntland.

Before the establishment of the Islamic State in Somalia in 2015, the Somali jihadist group al-Shabaab had established itself in the north. The small group had extensive connections to smuggling networks. It later split into two and the future leader of the Islamic State in Somalia, Sheikh Abdulqader Muumin, emerged from one of the splinter groups.

In Somalia, clans define the relationship between people and all actors in the society. The connections of the new group to the Ali Suleiban sub-clan enabled it to profit from the clan's links to smuggling and maritime piracy groups.

Puntland is the hub of communication and maritime trade between Somalia and Yemen, as well as the wider Middle East. Smuggling has gone on in the region for centuries. The rugged terrain is ideal for piracy, illegal smuggling and insurgents.

Puntland has been more or less autonomous from the rest of Somalia for more than three decades, and the Somali government has little influence there today.

Muumin lived in Sweden through the 1990s and early 2000s and later moved to the UK. Back in Somalia, he joined al-Shabaab and became a prominent figure in the group's jihadist videos. Such videos aim to maintain morals, attract new recruits and create sympathy for the group.

In 2015, Muumin defected to lead the Islamic State in Somalia. His second-in-command was another Ali Suleiban clansman, Mahad Moalim. In 2016, the first video of the group was circulated through Islamic State media outlets.

A milestone for the group followed its 2017 suicide bombing of the Juba Hotel in Bosaso, Puntland's commercial capital and sea port. This enabled the Islamic State in Somalia to pressure Bossaso-based businesses to pay it protection money, the single most important source of income. In 2017-2018, the group is believed to have been behind as many as 50 assassinations in central Somalia. The killings were a forceful tool to generate protection money.

On 27 July 2018, the Somali group was officially designated as a full province by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. The Maktab al-Karrar regional office was based in the small Puntland chapter, giving it global responsibilities.

The Somali group was made responsible for the central African and the Mozambique provinces of the Islamic State. Money flowed to the group from the Islamic State, as did extortion money from Bossaso, other northern Puntland cities and more infrequently from Mogadishu.

In the first half of 2022, the US Treasury claimed that the organisation generated US$2.3 million from extortion payments, related imports, livestock and agriculture. The regional office and Muumin emerged as key financial players in east Africa, and even outside it, from their base in Buur Dexhtaal in Bari Puntland. Indeed, unnamed US officials claimed in 2023 that Muumim had been made the transnational leader of the Islamic State.

The Islamic State's reputation in Somalia is often overstated. The group has never captured or held large territories. Its numbers in 2024 were estimated to be between 600 and 1,600. That pales in comparison to al-Shabaab in the south of Somalia.

Its links to a planned attack on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm 2024 were probably weak and failed to hold up in court. And the jihadist linked to a planned attack in the Vatican 2018 seems to have left Islamic State prior to the planning.

It is also doubtful that Muumin is the global leader of the Islamic State as claimed by some. That's for two main reasons. First, an Islamic State leader has to be drawn from a tribe related to the prophet (Qureshi). Muumin is not. Second, the Islamic State in Somalia is the smallest of the Islamic State provinces in Africa. It is likely that a leader of a stronger province would have ranked higher.

Although the income-gathering capacities of the Puntland-based group give it prominence in the Islamic State media, the Islamic State in Somalia does not rank higher than the Islamic State in the Sahara and Mozambique.

The Puntland authorities launched a relatively successful counter-offensive against the Islamic State in January 2025. This was combined with air support by the US and the United Arab Emirates.

Puntland won important battles in January and February, including an attack in which it killed 70 Islamic State fighters.

By late February, the morale of the Islamic State fighters seemed to break. With the fall of Buur Dexhtaal, the main base, in March, all the larger known bases had fallen. Many of the fleeing foreign fighters were captured.

But the Islamic State is not defeated. The terrain enabled some of the fighters to hide. Neither Muumin, who is in his 70s, nor his second-in-command Abdirahman Fahiye have been reported killed. There are at least several hundred fighters left.

If the Islamic State is still able to extort money from the northern business community, it could recruit from the large numbers of Oromo Ethiopian refugees in and around Bosaso, as well as locals who need jobs.