New Delhi firmly believes the Pahalgam terrorist attack was backed by Pakistan. It can crush Islamabad in retaliation

The gruesome massacre of innocent holidaymakers near Pahalgam in India's Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory has been condemned by all major world leaders including US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At least 28 people were killed and several others injured in the attack. That it happened when US Vice President J.D. Vance was in India indicates the audacity of the attackers and their backers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was on a visit to Saudi Arabia had to cut his trip short and rush back. The Indian security establishment immediately went into a huddle. Home Minister Amit Shah and the Army Chief rushed to Pahalgam to take stock of the situation on the ground.

The terrorists have already been identified and their Pakistan links established. The three military chiefs are now discussing a response and are considering all options. This will not be allowed to go by. There is nationwide anger. There will be repercussions. A team of National Investigation Agency (NIA) officials are investigating on the spot. Recent events in Bangladesh, the infiltration and riots in West Bengal, and Pakistan army chief's venomous position on Hindus are indicative of a major game play.

The Pakistani army chief talks supremacism

Addressing the Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad, General Asim Munir echoed the words of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan, who famously believed that Hindus and Muslims followed different philosophies, customs, and laws - making national unity impossible. Munir returned to the very roots of Pakistan's ideological foundation. "Our religion is different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different - that's where the foundation of the two-nation theory was laid. We are two nations, we are not one nation," he said.

He urged overseas Pakistanis to never forget that they belong to a "superior ideology and culture," and to pass down this ideology to future generations. "You have to narrate Pakistan's story to your children so that they don't forget it," he added.

Pakistani footprint all over the Pahalgam attack                                   

Hindu hatred is clearly visible from the modus operandi of the attack. Tell-tale signs of the Pakistani army's backing are emerging. Pakistan cannot stand the peace and prosperity emerging in Kashmir. The state has been incident-free since its special autonomy status was revoked in 2019. Tourist numbers have been going up. Public participation in elections have been very significant. Chief Minister Omar Abdulla has been working closely with the New Delhi government for betterment of the masses.

But Kashmir's integration with India was not palatable to the Pakistani ruling establishment. Pakistan is an ideological state, and its army has taken up the mantle of the guardian of that ideology. India's 1.3-million-strong army cannot intimidate Pakistan, Munir said. He obviously forgets about the meek surrender of 93,000 Pakistani soldiers in that ended the two-week-long 1971 Indo-Pakistani war.

"China condemned the Pahalgam terror attack and said they oppose terrorism in all its forms. Hope China will then find courage to ask tough questions to their "iron brother" Pakistan on why it continues to sponsor terrorism on directions of Asim Munir. Let this be clear. Mastermind of Pahalgam terror attack is not Hafiz Saeed or Lashkar e Tayyiba. Mastermind of Pahalgam Massacre is Asim Munir of Pakistan Army sitting in Rawalpindi. Pakistan Army and ISI need to pay for the bloody carnage in Kashmir. Modi Govt should act boldly," tweeted senior journalist Aditya Raj Kaul, a Hindu Kashmiri.

Political and diplomatic response

The Indian public is angered and demanding that the mantra "never forget, never forgive" be put into action.

For a long time, India has taken the soft line. Perhaps that is the reason some have taken India for granted. It cannot allow itself to be seen as a weak state. There are lessons to be learned from Israel.

There are diplomatic, political and military options. All need to be exercised in tandem. Strong expressions of support and solidarity have been received from many governments around the world, which have unequivocally condemned the Pahalgam terrorist attack. The world is with India. Multiple nations have suffered from terrorism. Notably, major Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have spoken in favor of India.

India's immediate response to the attack was broad-reaching. It has suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, which allowed for water sharing providing irrigation to vast swathes of Pakistani land. All trade between the two nations, including through third countries has been suspended. The Integrated Check Post Attari, a strategic cross-border trade checkpoint and the only legal land route for trade, was closed with immediate effect. Pakistani YouTube and other social media channels have been barred in India. Cricket and other sporting events have been suspended. Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) visas. SVES visas already issued to Pakistani nationals are deemed cancelled, with any Pakistanis currently in India under an SVES given 48 hours to leave.

Military, naval and air advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi (the Pakistani diplomatic mission in India) have been declared personae non grata and given a week to leave India. India will be withdrawing its own defense/navy/air advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad as well. Their posts in the respective High Commissions are deemed annulled. The overall strength of the High Commissions will be brought down to 30 from the present 55 through further reductions by May 1. India will use its financial and diplomatic muscle to teach Pakistan a lesson.

There are other things that can be done. Indirect options India could use include supporting secessionist forces in Pakistan and giving more backing to the insurgencies in Balochistan, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Military options

The Indian government's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) reviewed the overall security situation in its meeting at Prime Minister Narendra Modi's residence and directed all forces to maintain high vigil. The armed forces have already launched Operation Tikka, a high-level anti-terrorism campaign. A few terrorists have already been eliminated. The Indian Army is giving a massive response to unprovoked firing at the Line of Control (LoC) between the India- and Pakistan-controlled parts of Kashmir. The ceasefire there is de facto annulled. Indian armed forces are already carrying out preparatory joint military exercises. Selective mobilization of the armed forces is possible and would send a strong signal. If it comes to that, India could exercise a massive punishing multi-domain strike.

India has many unspoken options. It could activate operatives to strike military establishments within Pakistan. An artillery barrage against terrorist training camps across the border could be launched. In case of open warfare, Pakistan would run out of ammunition much faster. Much wider air strikes against a host of terrorist camps can be carried out. BrahMos and other cruise missiles can be used.

The Indian Navy's aircraft carrier has already sailed into the Arabian Sea. A few submarines could follow or may already be in the region. The Indian air force is formidable, with the French Rafale fighter jets armed with Scalp-EG and Meteor missiles. The Su-30 MKI, upgraded MiG 29 and Mirage-2000 are also potent assets.

New Delhi could coordinate with the Baloch Liberation Army and Pashtun insurgents in Pakistan to open multiple fronts. The escalation would have to be graded and carefully managed. A disproportionate Pakistan military response should be expected and prepared for.

India could also work towards selective US- and Israel-style assassinations of terrorist leaders in Pakistan plotting against.

Pakistan has few backers. Iran and the Saudis are not its friends anymore. China will at best act as a mediator. The US, Russia, Israel and Europe will back India for a controlled aggression. The bigger aim here is to show the Pakistani army in poor light. Call the nuclear bluff.

Punishment should not be a one-off event. It has to be a continuous program from now on. Make it painful for Pakistan to support terrorism. Peace overtures like the Aman ki Asha ('Hope for Peace') joint media campaign must end. Meanwhile, greater attention must be devoted to building military capability. Increase air force fighter squadron numbers. Stop downsizing the army. Get more nuclear submarines. Increase nuclear warheads.

Pakistan's response

Pakistan has also put its military on alert. Border areas are being sensitized by them for possible Indian attack. Pakistan has suspended the 1972 Shimla Agreement that had marked the LoC as the temporary border. Islamabad has closed its airspace for Indian airlines. Anti-India rhetoric has been boosted to raise the morale of the public. Pakistan has also announced that diversion of water due to it under the Indus Water Treaty will be treated as an act of war. It is a wait-and-watch situation.

Time to stop terrorist infiltration

There are many Indian politicians, especially in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, who consider illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants as their political support base and are turning a blind eye to their arrival and settlement. It is time to take appropriate actions to curb this trend. There is a tendency for security forces and intelligence agencies to be less vigilant when there is an extended period of peace. It happened in Kargil.

Kashmir is a different story. Vigil will be required for decades ahead. If these terrorists were within the region for nearly a month as reports indicate, then we need to look in the mirror. The Indian judiciary is often seen as soft against terrorists. This needs serious review. The public has to be sensitized much more against terrorists. The time to act is now. A soft reaction will invite further dastardly attacks.