According to the Association for the Development of Industry in the Mezzogiorno, Italy's exports would face a reduction of nearly one-fifth in volume and a loss of 12.4 billion euros in trade once the tariffs take effect.

ROME, July 14 (Xinhua) -- Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Monday the European Union (EU) is prepared to impose billions of euros in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods should ongoing trade negotiations between the two sides fail to produce an agreement.

In an interview published Monday by Italian daily Il Messaggero, Tajani emphasized that while the EU has the tools to defend its economic interests, dialogue remains the preferred path forward. "Tariffs hurt every side, including the U.S.," he said. "If the stock market falls, that puts the pensions and savings of Americans at risk."

Tajani's remarks followed U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on Saturday that Washington will impose a 30 percent tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico starting Aug. 1.

The move marks the latest escalation in a series of tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, even as U.S. and European officials are still working on a trade agreement.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also voiced concern over the prospect of a transatlantic trade war, warning that such a development would harm both sides.

"Our government is in close contact with the European Commission and all parties involved in the tariff negotiations," Meloni said in a statement. "A trade war within the West would make us all weaker in the face of global challenges we are addressing together. Europe has the economic strength to protect its interests and reach a fair agreement."

An analysis by the Milan-based Institute for International Political Studies suggested that Italy would be among the EU countries most affected by the U.S. tariffs. Under a 30-percent duty scenario, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by an estimated 0.5 percent compared to a no-tariff baseline, while Italy's GDP would shrink by approximately 0.36 percent.

On Monday, the Association for the Development of Industry in the Mezzogiorno (SVIMEZ) released its estimate of the impact of the U.S. tariffs on Italy's exports, projecting a reduction of nearly one-fifth in export volume and a loss of 12.4 billion euros in trade once the tariffs take effect.

SVIMEZ also warned of broader macroeconomic consequences, estimating a 0.5-percent reduction in Italy's GDP in 2026 and the potential loss of up to 150,000 jobs, including some 13,000 in the country's southern regions. "The repercussions would be nationwide," SVIMEZ President Luca Bianchi told Class CNBC.

Italy's main agricultural organization, Coldiretti, echoed the concerns, warning that the proposed tariffs could deal "a deadly blow" to the agri-food sector.

"Thirty-percent tariffs could inflict combined damages of up to 2.3 billion euros on Italian producers and U.S. consumers alike," Coldiretti said. Key agricultural exports such as cheese, wine, and processed foods would be hit hardest, the group noted.

According to Coldiretti's estimates, the new duties would raise overall tariffs on Italian cheese to 45 percent, wine to 35 percent, processed tomatoes to 42 percent, stuffed pasta to 36 percent, and jams and marmalades to 42 percent. (1 euro = 1.17 U.S. dollar)